The Paris Attacks: Not a Strategic Change, but a “Natural” Development

 

The Paris attacks do not represent a radical or surprising departure from the Islamic State’s strategy against Western nations, and thus what is at work is a natural, calculated development that was planned and organized by the Islamic State. The notion that unlike al-Qaeda, which focused on showcase terrorism in the West as its main action strategy, the Islamic State would avoid international terrorism and concentrate on encouraging sporadic acts of terrorism by lone perpetrators while its main focus was on entrenchment in the Arab sphere was clearly unfounded. In a campaign against the Islamic State, sophistication and innovation are a key. To ensure that the operations are effective and avoid harm to civilians as much as possible – harm that the Islamic State would exploit to recruit new supporters and fighters – it is necessary to make use of local forces in planning, operational activity, aerial assistance, targeted assassinations, and special forces based on high quality intelligence. The difficulty in enlisting a coalition of many states, each with its own particular and sometimes contradictory set of interests, is obvious. But the increase in the scope and impact of the Islamic State’s showcase attacks in Western cities will likely motivate nations to bridge the gaps between them and work together to remove the threat.

 

The terrorist attacks in Paris, which were carried out with determined, brutal efficiency and took the lives of 130 people and wounded hundreds more, physically and psychologically, were planned in Syria long in advance, with final preparations made in Belgium. The terrorist network involved in the multi-pronged strike consisted of at least nine members, seven of whom were suicide attackers. As far as is known, there was a logistics coordinator for the attacks, who perhaps was also the commander present. This terrorist, Abed al-Hamid Abaaoud, was later killed when a suicide belt exploded in a safe house where he was hiding before he and fellow terrorists managed to carry out another attack, which seems to have been planned for a financial district in the city.

 

Since the start of this year, Muslim citizens of Western countries who fought in the ranks of the Islamic State are known to have planned to attack targets in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Turkey, and elsewhere, but these attacks were foiled. Therefore, the severity and immediacy of the terrorist threat failed to penetrate the consciousness of decision makers and the public. But the terrorists’ intentions indicate that the Paris attacks – and attacks that were planned but not carried out – do not represent a radical or surprising departure from the Islamic State’s strategy against Western nations, and that at work is a natural, calculated development that was planned and organized by the Islamic State. As such, this development does not necessarily stem from the failures the Islamic State endured on the battlefields of Syria or its lack of new conquests.

 

The thousands of foreign volunteers from Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, China, and elsewhere have been absorbed into the ranks of the Islamic State over the last three years were trained as fighters in general and suicide attackers in particular, to advance the military campaign that the Islamic State has been waging primarily, but not only, in Syria and Iraq. Clearly the governing idea was that when the time was right, it would be possible to have these operatives launch an international terrorism campaign. The notion that unlike al-Qaeda, which focused on showcase terrorism in the West as its main action strategy, the Islamic State would avoid international terrorism and concentrate on encouraging sporadic acts of terrorism by lone perpetrators  inspired by Islamic State ideology, while its main focus was on territorial conquests and entrenchment in the Arab sphere, was clearly unfounded. Video clips disseminated by Islamic State members and sympathizers, viewed countless times in the social media associated with the organization, included declarations by foreign volunteers serving in Syria and Iraq on their intention to undertake acts of terrorism in Western nations. Beyond the bravado and the demonstration of their willingness to sacrifice themselves in the name of Islam and the Islamic caliphate, and beyond the attempt to sow fear in the West, these clips were and remain a clear declaration of intent on the part of the Islamic State... Read more.

 

Source : http://www.inss.org.il/index.aspx?id=4538&articleid=11020